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The number of confirmed cases of Evanston residents having COVID-19 grew to 97 as of 3 p.m. today, April 2, according to information provided by the City of Evanston. This is an increase of 8 cases since yesterday, April 1. The accompanying chart (in the rotating chart box) shows the trend starting on March 19. The first confirmed case of an Evanston resident was reported on March 13.
In the last five days, the increases have been 1, 3, 10, 8 and 8 cases. The second chart in the rotating chart box shows the average daily increase in COVID-19 cases in Evanston and also the five-day CAGR, which is the average increase in the last five days.
For Chicago, the COVID-19 cases grew from 3,087 to 3,279 since yesterday, the cases grew in Cook County from 5,152 to 5,575, and the cases in Illinois grew from 6,980 to 7,695. A total of 43,656 people in Illinois have been tested for COVID-19. The trends are shown in the third chart in the rotating chart box.
On April 1, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) updated its study, “Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months,” that was discussed in a March 31 article posted on the RoundTable’s site. The study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the State of Washington, estimates hospital utilization rates and deaths due to COVID-19 for each day in the next four months for each state in the nation.
The latest update predicts that the number of deaths per day due to COVID-19 in Illinois will peak at 109 on April 20, that the number of deaths will remain above 100 per day until April 27, and then begin to drop until the number is zero on June 3. IHME then forecasts that the number of deaths will remain zero through Aug. 1. The projections assume that “full social distancing” will be in place through May.
The updated study predicts that a total of 3,386 people in Illinois will die due to COVID-19 through Aug. 4.
The IHME study acknowledges there is a wide range of potential error in the projections. For example, the study projects that the number of deaths will be 109 on April 20, but the study indicates the range could be as low as 32 and as high as 409 deaths on that day.
The IHME study does not address what will happen if “full social distancing” restrictions are removed. Some studies say there is a possibility of a resurgence.
The Stay-at-Home order in Illinois has been extended to April 30. Both School District 65 and Evanston Township High School have confirmed that their school buildings will be closed, but they will provide Remote Learning. The Illinois State Board of Education provided recommendations for Remote Learning and requires all school districts in the State to develop Remote Learning Plans.
The Evanston RoundTable has established a section of its online newspaper where all articles relating to COVID-19 are collected. The articles may be accessed by clicking on COVID-19 in the top navigation bar. There is a drop-down section that contains articles posted by the RoundTable. The second drop down section is a mini-CDC site that is contains CDC’s updates.
The RoundTable thanks Karen Larkin for her assistance in providing data for this article.