Today was the fifth day in a row that the number of new COVID-19 cases have topped 10,000 in lllinois. The test positivity rate has been increasing at the same time, indicating that the virus is not contained. Hospitalizations are close to an all time high.
At the briefing today, Gov. JB Pritzker said, “We’re all looking hopefully toward a better tomorrow even as the public health experts warn of new waves of the virus as more people spend time inside in the months to come. We all want this to be over. But we need to gird ourselves for winter, because it’s not over yet. … We have potentially months of the fight ahead of us.”
The Governor said one ray of hope was that a preliminary analysis of a new mRNA vaccine suggested 90% effectiveness in preventing COVID-19. The new vaccine, developed by Pfizer and a partner, was discussed in the RoundTable’sarticle yesterday.
“There are more trials ahead to determine if there are safety concerns,” Gov. Pritzker said, “If the vaccine offers protection to those with prior COVID-19 exposure, if it protects against severe COVID-19 and its effects on human immunity last an appropriate amount of time. But the news yesterday was potentially a very good sign of things to come.
“And as I’ve said in weeks past, we stand ready in Illinois to build the appropriate logistics chain to distribute vaccines to our State’s residents. In the meantime, we’re locked in a struggle with this virus as winter approaches.”
Gov. Pritzker discussed that hospitalizations for COVID-19 were increasing in the majority of regions in the State at “far higher rates” than they did last spring. Suburban Cook County and Chicago were the exceptions, but he said there were some concerns about Suburban Cook County.
He said if there was a need for additional beds, the contingency plan would be similar to the plan used last spring, but he said it is not something on the horizon right now.
“We’re monitoring the numbers closely, and additional statewide action is possible.
“More than 10,000 of our fellow Illinoisans are getting infected each day. And dozens are dying each day,” the Governor said. “There is light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, but we just don’t know exactly when we will get there. So let’s use the best tools that we have. In the meantime: local enforcement, masks, distance, stop having social gatherings for a while and get your flu shot.”
EVANSTON: 29 New COVID-19 Cases Today
There were 29 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents today, for the second day in a row. The average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 24.9. There has been a total of 1,712 cases of Evanston residents during the pandemic, 198 of which are active. An accompanying chart shows the trend. [1]
In the last 7 days, there were a total of 174 new COVID-19 cases of Evanstonians. That equates to about 231 new cases per 100,000 people in the 7-day period. The State’s 7-day target is 50 per 100,000.
The test positivity rate over the last 7 days is still relatively low at 3.6%.
There was another death of an Evanstonian due to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 79.
The Impact of NU on Evanston’s Increase in Cases
All Northwestern University (NU) students, staff and faculty who live in Evanston and who test positive for COVID-19 are included in the case numbers reported above, according to the City. If NU students, staff or faculty live outside Evanston, they are not included. [2]
Northwestern University has posted data on its website reporting that between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8 (the latest period for which data is available) there were 51 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of students, staff and faculty, which includes those who live outside of Evanston. The test positive rate for NU students, staff and faculty is 0.74%.
SUBURBAN COOK COUNTY, CHICAGO AND ILLINOIS
Several key metrics used by IDPH to measure the spread of COVID-19 are the trend of new cases, the number of new cases per 100,000 population, and the test positivity rate. Another key metric is the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and hospitals’ capacity to care for a surge of new patients.
First, New Cases. In Suburban Cook County, there were 2,235 new COVID-19 cases today, and in Chicago there were 2,080, for a total of 4,315.
In the State there were 12,623 new cases reported today, which set an all-time record.
Today, the 7-day average of new cases per day in the State is 10,499, which is 56% higher than the 7-day average one week ago. It sets yet another record for the highest 7-day average during the entire pandemic.
For purposes of comparison, the average of new cases per day over the seven days ending on May 1 was 2,565, which was the previous high for the State, until the increases in the last several weeks. The 7-day average today is four times that.
The trends of new cases in Suburban Cook County, Chicago and the State are shown in accompanying charts.
Second, New Cases per 100,000 Population. This criterion measures the level of contagion in an area and whether it is at a level that can be contained and suppressed. IDPH’s target is that there be fewer than 50 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in a geographic area in a 7-day period. Harvard’s Global Health Institute (HGHI) and the Edmond J. Safra Center say that a stay-at-home order is necessary when the weekly cases exceed 169. [3]
In the 7-days ending Nov. 10, the number of new cases per 100,000 people were as follows for the areas indicated:
– Suburban Cook County: 582 (compared to 97 on Oct. 1 )
– Chicago: 548 (compared to 86 on Oct. 1)
– Illinois: 580 (compared to 111 on Oct. 1)
The new cases are about five times the number for the week ending Oct. 1, and each is more than ten times IDPH’s target.
An accompanying chart shows the trend in the number of new cases during the week ending Nov. 10, compared to the number of new cases for the weeks ending Oct. 1 and Nov. 3. [4]
Third, a Test Positivity Rate. IDPH’s target is that the test positivity rate be 5% or less, although HGHI and other leading experts say it should be 3% or less. If a community’s test positivity rate is high, it suggests that the community is not testing enough and not locating people who have milder or asymptomatic cases and who may be spreading the virus. [5]
The most recent 7-day test positivity rates are as follows:
– Suburban Cook County: 12.9% (as of Nov. 7)
– Chicago: 12.8% (as of Nov. 7)
– Illinois: 13.1% (as of Nov. 10)
Each positivity rate is more than double IDPH’s target and four times that of other leading experts. An accompanying chart highlights the rates.
Fourth, Hospital Admissions and Surge Capacity. The 7-day average of new hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Suburban Cook County and Chicago, combined, was 187 on Nov. 7 (the most recent day for which data is available). The number is up from 54 on Sept. 1.
IDPH reported that as of Nov. 9, Suburban Cook County has a surplus capacity of 22% of medical/surgical beds and 28% of ICU beds; and Chicago has a surplus capacity of 26% of medical/surgical beds and 30% ICU beds. IDPH’s target is 20% surplus capacity, so the target is met, but just barely.
On a Statewide basis, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 was 4,792 as of midnight on Nov. 9. This is up from 1,596 on Sept. 1. A chart in the chart box shows the trend.
For purposes of comparison, the highest number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 was 4,868 on May 6. Today’s rate is very close to the all-time high.
The number of patients using ICU beds is 981, up from 347 on Sept. 1. Patients on ventilators is 399, up from 142 on Sept. 1.
Fifth: Number of Tests: The average number of tests per day in the last seven days is 87,452. This is higher than HGHI’s mitigation level testing target, but about only 45% of the amount needed to meet HGHI’s suppression level testing target. [6].
The number of new tests reported today was 101,955. This includes antigen tests.
Sixth: Delays in Getting Test Results: Public health experts convened by HGHI and Edmond J. Safra Center say test results should be obtained within 24 hours.
Gov. Pritzker said on Oct. 23 that the turn-around time for many tests administered at State run testing sites is two or three days.
A saliva test developed at the University of Illinois can produce results in 3 to 6 hours, and it is being used at U of I, Champaign. [7] Gov. Pritzker said the plan is to expand this method of testing across the State, especially to other college campuses.
The new antigen tests being distributed by IDPH can generate results in 15 minutes.
Seventh: Contact Tracing: Widespread contact tracing is also essential to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Over the summer, the State put $237 million into building up contact tracers throughout the State, said Gov. Pritzker. There are now 3,300 contact tracers and the goal is to have 3,800.
Dr. Ezike said on Oct. 29 that as the number of new cases surge, contact tracers are “being stretched very thin, even as we bring the new contact tracers onboard.” She encouraged people to cooperate with contact tracers.
Gov. Pritzker said on Nov. 6 that there are 97 local health departments operated by cities and counties in the State. The two largest, Chicago and Suburban Cook County, are still ramping up. The remaining 95 health departments on average reach out to 90% of the people who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Deaths: There were 79 deaths Statewide in the last 24 hours, and a total of 10,289 deaths due to COVID-19 during the pandemic.
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FOOTNOTES
1/ Antigen Tests. The Illinois Department of Public Health announced on Oct. 15 that is including both molecular (PCR) and antigen tests in the number of statewide total tests performed in Illinois, and that it is including the positive test results on antigen tests in the confirmed COVID-19 cases reported. “Previously, due to the limited number of antigen tests and limited information about antigen test accuracy, antigen tests were not included in the total number (which comprised less than 1% of total tests performed). Antigen tests, like BinaxNOW™, are now becoming more readily available, therefore, IDPH will include both molecular and antigen tests in its total number of tests starting October 15, 2020,” said the Illinois Department of Public Health. Dr. Ngozi Ezike, Director of IDPH, said on October 30, “You have COVID if you come up with a positive on the antigen test.” Gov. JB Pritzker said it is “very, very likely” that a person had COVIC-19 if they test positive on an antigen test. The State’s plan is to administer 3 million antigen tests provided by the federal government by the end of this year.
Dr. Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology and assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said an antigen test detects if there is an antigen which is one of the proteins in the virus, while the PCR test looks for the RNA of the virus.
2/ Northwestern University Covid-19 Cases. Ike C. Ogbo, Director of Evanston’s Health & Human Services Department, told the RoundTable that the COVID-19 cases reported by the City include cases of faculty, staff and students attending Northwestern University who live in Evanston. The RoundTable asked the City in an FOIA Request to provide the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in Evanston. The City refused to provide the data. On Oct. 26, the RoundTable appealed the City’s decision to the Public Access Counselor of the Attorney General’s Office.
The RoundTable has asked Northwestern University on two occasions to provide information breaking out the number of new COVID-19 cases of its faculty, staff and students by residency in Evanston. NU did not respond to either request.
3/ Number of Cases per 100,000 Population. On July 1, a network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center published a Key Metrics for COVID Suppression framework that provides guidance to policy makers and the public on how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation. The targets for new Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people are as follows (these are converted from cases per day to cases per week): a) less than 7 cases: “on track for containment;” b) 7 to 63 cases: “community spread,” rigorous test and trace program advised; c) 70 to 168 cases: “accelerated spread,” stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised; and d) 169+: ”tipping point,” stay-at-home orders necessary. The article is available here: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “minimal” – less than 50 cases per 100,000 in a week; 2) “moderate” – between 50 and 100 cases per week; and 3) “substantial” more than 100 cases per 100,000 in a week. In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the “target” is 50 cases per week per 100,000 people.
4/ Calculations. The RoundTable calculated the number of cases per 100,000 using case data provided by IDPH and assuming that the population of Suburban Cook County is 2.469 million, that the population of Chicago is 2.710 million, and that the population of Illinois is 12.671 million.
5/ The Test Positivity Rate. On May 26, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center said on its website that “the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments [on May 15] that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (i.e., out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.”
Johns Hopkins explains, “The rate of positivity is an important indicator, because it can provide insights into whether a community is conducting enough testing to find cases. If a community’s positivity is high, it suggests that that community may largely be testing the sickest patients and possibly missing milder or asymptomatic cases. A lower positivity may indicate that a community is including in its testing patients with milder or no symptoms.” Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity
The Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) says, “A network of research, policy, and public health organizations convened by Harvard and MIT called the TTSI Collaborative has agreed on a 3% test positive rate or below as a key indicator of progress towards suppression level testing. This targets broad and accessible testing for symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Out of the positive tests that do not come from hotspot testing, at least 80% should come from contact tracing.”
While stating the test positivity target is 5% or less, IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “Minimal” – test positivity rate is equal to or less than 5%: 2) “Moderate” – test positivity rate is between 5% and 8%; and 3) “Substantial” – test positivity rate is over 8%. In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the target is 5%.
6/ How Much Testing Should be Done. The Harvard Global Health Institute posted a paper showing testing targets as of October 1, 2020. The targets for Illinois are 438 tests per 100,000 people to meet the “mitigation” target and 1,602 tests per day to meet the “suppression” target. The paper says that Illinois 7 day average of testing is 564 tests per day. Link to paper: https://globalepidemics.org/october-1-testing-targets/
Mitigation Level Testing: In an earlier paper, HGHI says for mitigation level testing, “The focus is on reducing the spread of the virus through broad testing of symptomatic people, tracing and testing a recommended 10 contacts per new case and isolating positive contacts, and social distancing, mask wearing or stay-at-home orders as necessary.
“There is a challenge with this approach: As states open up, mitigation level testing is often not sufficient to prevent new outbreaks.
“With strict social distancing orders in place, cases go down, but then spike back up again as a state loosens restrictions. It’s a rollercoaster of recurring outbreaks that creates great uncertainty, for example around reopening businesses, schools, and other vital parts of the economy.”
Suppression Level Testing: HGHI says, “Suppression level testing allows a state or community to quickly find and isolate new cases before they lead to a wider outbreak, with an aim of keeping new case levels at or near zero.
“This requires large, proactive testing — including regular testing of asymptomatic people in high-risk environments such as nursing homes, colleges, and parts of the service industry — paired with rapid contact tracing and supported isolation (TTSI), as well as other measures. Several states are working hard to build and maintain this type of response, including Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut.
“Suppression level TTSI programs reduce uncertainty and allow life to return to something closer to normal — but still include mask-wearing, social distancing, handwashing and other measures. It is easier to do when case counts are relatively low or on the decline.”
Link to HGHI’s report: https://globalepidemics.org/july-6-2020-state-testing-targets/
7/ Saliva-based Tests. On Aug. 19, the University of Illinois received emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration to run a saliva-based COVID-19 test. “The saliva test is less expensive, faster, and requires significantly less raw materials than traditional testing,” said Gov. JB Pritzker. “If ongoing research continues to yield positive results, this has potentially game changing implications for our State-wide testing complex as well as for testing on a national level, particularly for our high risk communities and settings.
“This type of scalable product would allow us to mass deploy testing, and better track and contain the spread of COVID-19. We’re already working to deploy this to more public universities across the State over the next weeks and months and exploring rolling this out to do testing potentially for K-12 schools and even more testing at our long-term care facilities,” said the Governor.
Dr. Martin Burke, who put the research team together that developed the test, said that in a trial run in July, they were able to get “very fast test results, in many cases in 3 to 6 hours,” which enabled them to rapidly isolate people who were infected with the virus and to contact trace. They were able to reduce the test positivity rate from 1.5% to 0.2% during the month, he said.
Dr. Burke said “speed is the key.” The test is “very well suited to scalability” and the cost is about $10 a test. He added that the University has capacity to administer 20,000 tests a day.