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Update at 9 am. on Feb. 26. Ike Ogbo, Director of Health and Human Services, told the RoundTable this morning that there were only 5 new COVID-19 cases of Evanstonians yesterday, Feb. 25. The rest of the 40 were due to lab reporting delays.

COVID-19 Vaccinations in Evanston

To date, the City of Evanston has distributed more than 13,000 total vaccine doses as part of Phase 1a and 1b.

On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, AMITA Health St. Francis Hospital, on behalf of the City’s Health & Human Services Department, administered approximately 975 vaccines to people over the age of 70, as well as educators.

On Wednesday, the City administered second dose vaccinations to older adults and Phase 1a healthcare workers.

Today, the City administered more than 400 first dose vaccinations to residents and staff of congregate living and shelter facilities.

Tomorrow, Feb. 26, the City will hold a closed vaccination event to administer approximately 500 second doses to individuals 83 years and older and Phase 1a healthcare workers.

Next week, the City anticipates providing second dose vaccinations for people 78 years and older.

Additional vaccination events will be scheduled as supplies are confirmed and received. The City will continue to prioritize people 65 years and older, focusing on the oldest first.

Frontline essential workers, including educators, grocery store workers, manufacturers, public transit employees, and others are included in Phase 1b. The City says it  will increase vaccine distribution to these people after substantially completing vaccinations of people 65 years and older. The pace of distribution remains entirely dependent on the amount of vaccine the City receives; supplies remain limited.

Risk of Community Spread

Both the CDC and IDPH recommend that communities assess the risk that COVID-19 will spread using two measures: 1) the total number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the community (e.g., county) in the past seven days; and 2) the percentage of tests for COVID-19 that were returned positive in the last 7 days. [1, 2 and 3]

For total cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 people, IDPH uses a target of 50 cases. CDC says between 10 and 49 cases represents a “moderate” risk of transmission.

For test positivity in the last 7 days, IDPH uses a target of 5%. CDC says between 5% and 7.9% represents a “moderate” risk of transmission.

Two of the charts in the above chart box track these two measures for Suburban Cook County, Chicago and the State. [4] The third chart shows the trend of new cases in the State.

Evanston – COVID

The City reported 40 new COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents today, but with a caveat. Ike Ogbo, Director of Health and Human Services, told the RoundTable, “The high number of new COVID-19 cases (40) reported today is due to a reporting delay from one of the labs. Many of the cases are backlogged from as far back as December. We will work to ensure that this issue is sorted out.”

The RoundTable asked if the City could tell how many new cases there were today, and provide dates for the 40 cases. Patrick Deignan, Communications Manager for the City, told the RoundTable the City’s Health and Human Services Department does not have a breakdown of the 40 cases by date at this time. “So unfortunately we cannot say exactly how many were from today, and how many were from the last few months,” Mr. Deignan said.

Because there is no information concerning the number of COVID-19 cases today, the RoundTable is not able to provide seven-day averages, the number of cases per 100,000, and a test positivity rate.

There has been a total of 3,888 COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents during the pandemic, 201 of which are active.

One Evanstonian died due to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is now 111.    

Impact of Northwestern University. Northwestern University has posted data on its website reporting that between Feb. 18 and Feb. 24 there were 40 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of faculty, staff, and students. The number includes those who live outside of Evanston. The City claims it does not know how many of these cases are people who live in Evanston. [5]

Illinois – COVID

 In the State, there were 1,884 new COVID-19 cases reported today, down from 2,022 yesterday.

Statewide, the average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 1,792. The seven-day average one week ago, on Feb. 18, was 1,836, so today’s number is a decrease of 2%.  

Today’s seven-day average is down from an all-time high of 12,380 on Nov. 17. An accompanying chart shows the trend.

In the seven days ending Feb. 25, the number of new cases per 100,000 people in the State was 99, down from 101 one week ago.

The seven-day case positivity rate for the State today is 2.5% and the test positivity rate is 2.7%.

On a Statewide basis, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 was 1,463 as of midnight on Feb. 24. This is down from an all-time high of 6,171 on Nov. 23.

The number of patients using ICU beds is 334, down from 1,195 on Dec. 1. The number of patients on ventilators is 168, down from 724 on Dec. 1.

On a Statewide basis, there were 32 deaths due to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, which brings the total to 20,406.

For the last seven days, the numbers of deaths in the State are 63, 42, 35, 34, 27, 44, and 32 today. The seven-day average is 40.

Vaccinations in the State

A total of 3,138,545 doses of vaccine have been delivered to providers in Illinois, including Chicago and long-term care facilities.  IDPH is currently reporting that a total of 2,440,950 doses of vaccines have been administered.

FOOTNOTES 

1/ On Feb. 12, the CDC issued a “K-12 School Operational Strategy.” As part of that strategy, the report says, “CDC recommends the use of two measures of community burden to determine the level of risk of transmission: 1) the total number of new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days; and 2) the percentage of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), including RT-PCR tests that are positive during the last 7 days. The two measures of community burden should be used to assess the incidence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the surrounding community (e.g., county) and not in the schools themselves.” The CDC provides a chart to assess whether the risk of transmission is low, moderate, substantial, or high. The CDC recommends different types of mitigations depending on the risk level. If the two indicators suggest different levels of risk, the mitigations recommended in the higher level of risk should be implemented, says CDC. The table below, reprinted from CDC’s report, provides CDC’s Indicators and Thresholds for Community Transmission of COVID-219.

 2/ Number of Cases per 100,000 Population. On July 1, a network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center published a Key Metrics for COVID Suppression framework that provides guidance to policy makers and the public on how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation. The targets for new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people are as follows (these are converted from cases per day to cases per week): a) less than 7 cases: “on track for containment;” b) 7 to 63 cases: “community spread,” rigorous test and trace program advised; c) 70 to 168 cases: “accelerated spread,” stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised; and d) 169+: ”tipping point,” stay-at-home orders necessary.  The article is available here: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “minimal” – fewer than 50 cases per 100,000 in a week; 2) “moderate” – between 50 and 100 cases per week; and 3) “substantial” more than 100 cases per 100,000 in a week.  In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the “target” is 50 cases per week per 100,000 people.

3/ The Test Positivity Rate. In addition, on May 26, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center said on its website that “the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments [on May 15] that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (i.e., out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.”  Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity

The Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) says, “A network of research, policy, and public health organizations convened by Harvard and MIT called the TTSI Collaborative has agreed on a 3% test positive rate or below as a key indicator of progress towards suppression level testing.”

IDPH says the test positivity target is 5% or less. IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “Minimal” – test positivity rate is equal to or less than 5%: 2) “Moderate” – test positivity rate is between 5% and 8%; and 3) “Substantial” – test positivity rate is over 8%. In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the target is 5%.

4/ Calculations. The RoundTable calculates the number of cases per 100,000 using case data provided by IDPH and assuming that the population of Suburban Cook County is 2.469 million, that the population of Chicago is 2.710 million, and that the population of Illinois is 12.671 million.

5/ Northwestern University COVID-19 Cases. Ike C. Ogbo, Director of Evanston’s Health & Human Services Department, told the RoundTable that the COVID-19 cases reported by the City include cases of faculty, staff, and students attending Northwestern University who live in Evanston. The RoundTable asked the City in an FOIA Request to provide the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in Evanston. The City refused to provide the data. On Oct. 26, the RoundTable appealed the City’s decision to the Public Access Counselor of the Attorney General’s Office. On Nov. 13, the City filed a response claiming it does not have any records showing the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in Evanston.

The RoundTable has asked Northwestern University on several occasions to provide information breaking out the number of new COVID-19 cases of its faculty, staff and students by residency in Evanston. NU did not respond.