An
announcement is expected by tomorrow advising whether or not District 65 will open its schools in two weeks for in-person learning. Key metrics being used by the
District, however, are not met. The test positivity rate of Evanston was 3.79%
today, and Suburban Cook County’s was 9.8%. The District’s targets are 3% and
8%, respectively.
Some District 65 parents have urged the District to open the
schools for in-person learning, and questioned the metrics being used by the
District. They say that schools have safely opened throughout the country, and
the benefits to children of in-person learning outweigh the risks. For more on this, click here.
EVANSTON: 22 New COVID-19 Cases Today
There
were 22 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents today.
The
average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 16.1. This is up from 15.3 on Dec. 28. For purposes
of comparison, on Oct. 12, the seven-day average was 5.6.
There
has been a total of 3,161 COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents during the
pandemic, 314 of which are active. An accompanying chart shows the trend. [1]
In
the last seven days, there was a total of 113 new COVID-19 cases of
Evanstonians. That equates to about 150 new cases per 100,000 people in the seven-day
period. This is up from 142 for the prior week. The State’s seven-day target is
50 per 100,000.
The
test positivity rate for new cases in the last seven days is 3.79%. The rate has
increased from 3.1% on Dec. 28.
One
Evanstonian died due to COVID-19 in the last 48 hours. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 is now 95.
The Impact of NU on Evanston’s Increase in
Cases
All
Northwestern University (NU) students, staff, and faculty who live in Evanston and
who test positive for COVID-19 are included in the case numbers reported above,
according to the City. NU students, staff, and faculty who live outside Evanston
are not included. [2]
Northwestern
University has posted data on its website reporting that between Dec. 28 and Jan.
3, there were 18 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of faculty, students. The number includes
those who live outside of Evanston. The City claims it does not know how many
of these cases are people who live in Evanston. The test positivity rate is
9.28%. [2]
KEY METRICS FOR SUBURBAN COOK COUNTY,
CHICAGO, AND ILLINOIS
Several
key metrics used by the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) to measure the spread of COVID-19 are the trend of new
cases, the number of new cases per 100,000 population, and the test positivity
rate. Other key metrics are the capacity
of hospitals to care for a surge of new patients, and the number of deaths.
First, New Cases. The seven-day averages of new cases have increased
for Suburban Cook County, Chicago and the State.
In Suburban Cook County, there were 843 new
COVID-19 cases today. The seven-day average is 1,071, compared to 990 for the
week ending Dec. 28, or an 8% increase from week to week.
The
number of new cases in Chicago was 1,005. The seven-day average is 1,070,
compared to 933 for the week ending Dec. 28, or a 15% increase.
In the State, there were 5,059 new cases
reported today, which is the sixth day in a row that the number of cases has
increased.
Statewide,
the average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 6,074, compared
to 5,327 for the week ending Dec. 28, or a 14% increase.
The
all-time high seven-day average for the State is 12,380 on Nov. 17. While new cases have declined significantly from
then, the number of new cases is still very high.
Second, New Cases per 100,000
Population.
This criterion measures the level of contagion in an area and whether it is at
a level that can be contained and suppressed. There are several benchmark
numbers. IDPH’s target is that there be
fewer than 50 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in a geographic area in a seven-day
period. Two leading research groups say there is “accelerated spread” if the
number is over 70. [3]
In
the seven days ending Jan. 4, the number of new cases per 100,000 people were
as follows for the areas indicated:
-
Suburban Cook
County: 304 (compared to 281 on Dec. 28)
-
Chicago: 276 (compared to 241 on Dec. 28)
-
Illinois: 339 (compared to 294 on Dec. 28)
For
each area, the number of weekly new cases per 100,000 on Jan. 4 is higher than they were on Dec. 28. The numbers
of new cases are each significantly higher than the benchmarks. [4]
Third, a Test Positivity Rate. IDPH’s target is that the test positivity
rate be 5% or less, although the Harvard Global Health Initiative (HGHI) and other leading experts say it should be 3%
or less. If a community’s test
positivity rate is high, it suggests that the community is not testing enough and
not locating people who have milder or asymptomatic cases and who may be
spreading the virus. [5]
The
most recent seven-day test positivity rates are as follows:
-
Suburban Cook
County: 9.8% (as of Jan. 1)
-
Chicago: 10.0% (as of Jan. 1)
-
Illinois: 9.8% (as of Jan. 1)
Each
positivity rate is higher than the targets. An accompanying chart highlights
the rates.
Fourth, Hospital Admissions and Surge
Capacity.
There were 1,993 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Suburban Cook County and
Chicago as of midnight on Dec. Jan. 3. By way of comparison, hospitalizations in
these regions were 2,836 on Dec. 1.
IDPH
reported that, as of Jan. 3, Suburban Cook County had a surplus capacity of 22%
of medical/surgical beds and 22% of ICU beds; and Chicago had a surplus
capacity of 22% of medical/surgical beds and 25% of ICU beds. IDPH’s target is 20%
surplus capacity.
On
a Statewide basis, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 was 3,948 as
of midnight on Jan. 3. They are down from an all-time high of 6,171 on Nov. 23.
A chart in the chart box shows the trend.
The
number of patients using ICU beds is 816, down from 1,195 on Dec. 1. The number
of patients on ventilators is 471, down from 724 on Dec. 1.
Deaths: On a Statewide basis, there were 79 deaths due
to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, which brings the total to 16,834.
For
the last seven days, the number of deaths in the State were 106, 198, 133, 155,
29, 81, and 79 today. The seven-day average is 112. For purposes of comparison, the seven-day
average was 153 on Dec. 7.
…………………………….,
FOOTNOTES
1/
Antigen Tests. The Illinois
Department of Public Health announced on Oct. 15 that is including both
molecular (PCR) and antigen tests in the number of statewide total tests
performed in Illinois, and that it is including the positive test results on
antigen tests in the confirmed COVID-19 cases reported. Dr. Ngozi Ezike,
Director of IDPH, said on Oct. 30, “You have COVID if you come up with a
positive on the antigen test.”
Dr.
Michael Mina, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Assistant Professor of Immunology
and Infectious Diseases at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said
an antigen test detects if there is an antigen which is one of the proteins in
the virus, while the PCR test looks for the RNA of the virus.
2/
Northwestern University COVID-19 Cases.
Ike C. Ogbo, Director of Evanston’s Health & Human Services
Department, told the RoundTable that
the COVID-19 cases reported by the City include cases of faculty, staff, and
students attending Northwestern University who live in Evanston. The RoundTable asked the City in an FOIA
Request to provide the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19
and who live in Evanston. The City refused to provide the data. On Oct. 26, the
RoundTable appealed the City’s decision
to the Public Access Counselor of the Attorney General’s Office. On Nov. 13,
the City filed a response claiming it does not have any records showing the
number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in
Evanston.
The RoundTable has asked Northwestern
University on two occasions to provide information breaking out the number of
new COVID-19 cases of its faculty, staff and students by residency in Evanston.
NU did not respond to either request.
3/ Number
of Cases per 100,000 Population. On July 1, a network of research, policy
and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and
Edmond J. Safra Center published a Key Metrics for COVID Suppression framework
that provides guidance to policy makers and the public on how to target and
suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation. The targets for new COVID-19
cases per 100,000 people are as follows (these are converted from cases per day
to cases per week): a) less than 7 cases: “on track for containment;” b) 7 to
63 cases: “community spread,” rigorous test and trace program advised; c) 70 to
168 cases: “accelerated spread,” stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and
trace programs advised; and d) 169+: ”tipping point,” stay-at-home orders
necessary. The article is available
here: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
IDPH
provides these categories and ratings: 1) “minimal” – fewer than 50 cases per
100,000 in a week; 2) “moderate” – between 50 and 100 cases per week; and 3) “substantial”
more than 100 cases per 100,000 in a week.
In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says
the “target” is 50 cases per week per 100,000 people.
4/ Calculations. The RoundTable
calculates the number of cases per 100,000 using case data provided by IDPH and
assuming that the population of Suburban Cook County is 2.469 million, that the
population of Chicago is 2.710 million, and that the population of Illinois is
12.671 million.
5/
The Test Positivity Rate. On May 26, Johns Hopkins University &
Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center said on its website that “the World Health
Organization (WHO) advised governments [on May 15] that before
reopening, rates of positivity in testing (i.e., out of all tests
conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) should remain at 5% or
lower for at least 14 days.”
Johns
Hopkins explains, “The rate of positivity is an important indicator, because it
can provide insights into whether a community is conducting enough testing to
find cases. If a community’s positivity is high, it suggests that that
community may largely be testing the sickest patients and possibly missing
milder or asymptomatic cases. A lower positivity may indicate that a community
is including in its testing patients with milder or no symptoms.” Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity
The
Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) says, “A network of research, policy,
and public health organizations convened by Harvard and MIT called
the TTSI Collaborative has agreed on a 3% test positive rate or below as a
key indicator of progress towards suppression level testing. This targets broad
and accessible testing for symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Out of the
positive tests that do not come from hotspot testing, at least 80% should come
from contact tracing.”
While
stating the test positivity target is 5% or less, IDPH provides these
categories and ratings: 1) “Minimal” – test positivity rate is equal to or less
than 5%: 2) “Moderate” – test positivity rate is between 5% and 8%; and 3)
“Substantial” – test positivity rate is over 8%. In its Metrics for School
Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the target is 5%.