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Big Jump in Evanston Cases
In the last three days there has been a total of 79 new COVID-19 cases in Evanston. As illustrated in the top chart, this is a huge increase compared to prior periods.
“Cases over the last three days have been a mix of both community spread, as well as cases in congregate settings,” Patrick Deignan, the City’s Communications Manager, told the RoundTable. He added, “Cases among Northwestern students who live in dorms, etc. would be considered congregate setting cases. NU staff and students who live in Evanston would be included in the City’s case count, but those who live outside of Evanston would not be.”
NU posted data on its website today showing that between March 25 and March 31 there were 75 new Covid-19 cases of faculty, staff, and students. Just yesterday NU was reporting that between March 22 and March 28 there were 13 new COVID-19 cases.
The recent jump in COVID cases in Evanston is likely due in significant part to the jump in cases among NU students or staff, but there is no hard data to quantify the amount.
In a message to the community late yesterday, Mayor Stephen Haggerty said, “Although the vaccination data is encouraging, other metrics are concerning. In Evanston, Illinois, and across the nation, COVID-19 positivity rates, daily confirmed cases, and hospital admissions are rising.”
“In order to reduce infections and meet the metrics required to move to the “Bridge Phase” of our State’s recovery, we must stay vigilant, mask up, social distance, and continue taking the public health measures proven to reduce the spread of this disease, as we’ve done throughout this pandemic.”
The Mayor reported that the latest data from the Illinois Department of Public Health showed that 91% of Evanston residents 65 and older have received at least their first vaccine dose; and 61% of that age group are fully vaccinated. This includes residents who have been vaccinated at City of Evanston point-of-dispensing events as well as at other locations such as a Cook County vaccination site or a pharmacy.
“With most seniors now vaccinated, the City has shifted its focus to vaccinating other individuals eligible as part of Phase 1B and 1B+, including essential workers and those with pre-existing health conditions,” the Mayor said.
Risk of Community Spread
The charts in the above chart track: 1) the total number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in a seven-day period in Evanston, suburban Cook County, Chicago, and the State, 2) the percentage of tests for COVID-19 that were returned positive in the last seven days, and 3) the trend in new cases in Illinois.
The charts show that new cases are on the rise.
For total cases in the last seven days per 100,000 people, IDPH uses a target of 50 cases. The CDC says between 10 and 49 cases represents a “moderate” risk of transmission.
For test positivity in the last seven days, IDPH uses a target of 5%. The CDC says between 5% and 7.9% represents a “moderate” risk of transmission. [1, 2 and 3]
Evanston — COVID
The City reported 24 new COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents today, down from 37 yesterday.
The average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 16.3, up from the seven-day average of 6.9 on March 25.
In the last seven days, there was a total of 114 new COVID-19 cases of Evanstonians. The 114 new cases equate to about 154 new cases per 100,000 people in the seven-day period.
The case positivity rate over the last seven days is 2.5%.
There has been a total of 4,213 COVID-19 cases of Evanston residents during the pandemic, 186 of which are active.
No Evanstonian died due to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 remains at 114.
Impact of Northwestern University. Northwestern University has posted data on its website reporting that between March 25 and March 31 there were 75 new confirmed COVID-19 cases of NU faculty, students, and staff. The number includes people who live outside of Evanston. The City says it does not know how many of these cases are people who live in Evanston. 
Illinois — COVID
In the State, there were 3,526 new COVID-19 cases reported today, up from 2,592 yesterday.
Statewide, the average number of new cases per day in the last seven days is 2,495. The seven-day average one week ago on March 25 was 1,972, so today’s number is up by 27%.
Today’s seven-day average is down from an all-time high of 12,380 on Nov. 17. An accompanying chart shows the trend.
In the seven days ending April 1, the number of new cases per 100,000 people in the State was 143, up from 109 one week ago.
The seven-day case positivity rate for the State today is 3.5% and the test positivity rate is 4.0%.
On a Statewide basis, the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 was 1,411 as of midnight on March 31. This is down from an all-time high of 6,171 on Nov. 23.
The number of patients using ICU beds is 304, down from 1,195 on Dec. 1. The number of patients on ventilators is 121, down from 724 on Dec. 1.
On a Statewide basis, there were 25 deaths due to COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, which brings the total to 21,326.
For the last seven days, the numbers of deaths in the State are 33, 25, 23, 5, 17, 28, and 25 today. The seven-day average is 22.
Variants in Illinois
IDPH is reporting a total of 351 confirmed cases of COVID-19 variants in the State. Of those 276 are the variant first discovered in the UK.
Vaccinations in the State
A total of 7,554,135 doses of vaccine have been delivered to providers in Illinois, including Chicago and long-term care facilities. IDPH is currently reporting that a total of 5,918,422 doses of vaccines have been administered.
1/ On Feb. 12, the CDC issued a “K-12 School Operational Strategy.” As part of that strategy, the report says, “CDC recommends the use of two measures of community burden to determine the level of risk of transmission: 1) the total number of new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days; and 2) the percentage of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), including RT-PCR tests that are positive during the last 7 days. The two measures of community burden should be used to assess the incidence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the surrounding community (e.g., county) and not in the schools themselves.” The CDC provides a chart to assess whether the risk of transmission is low, moderate, substantial, or high. The CDC recommends different types of mitigations depending on the risk level. If the two indicators suggest different levels of risk, the mitigations recommended in the higher level of risk should be implemented, says CDC. The table below, reprinted from CDC’s report, provides CDC’s Indicators and Thresholds for Community Transmission of COVID-219.
2/ Number of Cases per 100,000 Population. On July 1, a network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center published a Key Metrics for COVID Suppression framework that provides guidance to policy makers and the public on how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the nation. The targets for new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people are as follows (these are converted from cases per day to cases per week): a) less than 7 cases: “on track for containment;” b) 7 to 63 cases: “community spread,” rigorous test and trace program advised; c) 70 to 168 cases: “accelerated spread,” stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised; and d) 169+: ”tipping point,” stay-at-home orders necessary. The article is available here: https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “minimal” – fewer than 50 cases per 100,000 in a week; 2) “moderate” – between 50 and 100 cases per week; and 3) “substantial” more than 100 cases per 100,000 in a week. In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the “target” is 50 cases per week per 100,000 people.
3/ The Test Positivity Rate. In addition, on May 26, Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center said on its website that “the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments [on May 15] that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (i.e., out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.” Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity
The Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI) says, “A network of research, policy, and public health organizations convened by Harvard and MIT called the TTSI Collaborative has agreed on a 3% test positive rate or below as a key indicator of progress towards suppression level testing.”
IDPH says the test positivity target is 5% or less. IDPH provides these categories and ratings: 1) “Minimal” – test positivity rate is equal to or less than 5%: 2) “Moderate” – test positivity rate is between 5% and 8%; and 3) “Substantial” – test positivity rate is over 8%. In its Metrics for School Determination of Community Spread, IDPH says the target is 5%.
4/ Calculations. The RoundTable calculates the number of cases per 100,000 using case data provided by IDPH and assuming that the population of Suburban Cook County is 2.469 million, that the population of Chicago is 2.710 million, and that the population of Illinois is 12.671 million.
5/ Northwestern University COVID-19 Cases. Ike C. Ogbo, Director of Evanston’s Health & Human Services Department, told the RoundTable that the COVID-19 cases reported by the City include cases of faculty, staff, and students attending Northwestern University who live in Evanston. The RoundTable asked the City in an FOIA Request to provide the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in Evanston. The City refused to provide the data. On Oct. 26, the RoundTable appealed the City’s decision to the Public Access Counselor of the Attorney General’s Office. On Nov. 13, the City filed a response claiming it does not have any records showing the number of NU students who tested positive for COVID-19 and who live in Evanston.
The RoundTable has asked Northwestern University on several occasions to provide information breaking out the number of new COVID-19 cases of its faculty, staff and students by residency in Evanston. NU did not respond.